Temporo-spatial dynamics and behavioural patterns of 2012 cholera epidemic in the African mega-city of Conakry, Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Cholera is endemic in Guinea, having suffered consecutive outbreaks from 2004 to 2008 followed by a lull until the 2012 epidemic. Here we describe the temporal-spatial and behavioural characteristics of cholera cases in Conakry during a three-year period, including the large-scale 2012 epidemic. METHODS: We used the national and African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) surveillance data collected from every cholera treatment centre in Conakry city from August 2011 to December 2013. The prevalence of suspect and confirmed cholera cases, the case fatality ratio (CFR), and the factors associated with suspected cholera were described according to three periods: pre-epidemic (A), epidemic 2012 (B) and post epidemic (C). Weekly attack rates and temporal-spatial clustering were calculated at municipality level for period B. Cholera was confirmed by culture at the cholera national reference laboratory. RESULTS: A total of 4559 suspect cases were reported: 66, 4437, and 66 suspect cases in periods A, B and C, respectively. Among the 204 suspect cases with culture results available, 6%, 60%, and 70% were confirmed in periods A, B, and C, respectively. With 0.3%, the CFR was significantly lower in period B than in periods A (7.6%) and C (7.1%). The overall attack rate was 0.28% in period B, ranging from 0.17% to 0.31% across municipalities. Concomitantly, a cluster of cases was identified in two districts in the northern part of Conakry. At 14%, rice water stools were less frequent in period A than in period B and C (78% and 84%). Dehydration (31% vs 94% and 89%) and coma (0.4% vs 3.1% and 2.9%) were lower during period B than in periods A and C. The treatment of drinking water was less frequent in period A, while there were more reports of recent travel in period C. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic dynamic and the sociological description of suspect cases before, during, and after the large-scale epidemic revealed that the Vibrio cholerae was already present before the epidemic. However, it appeared that infected individuals reacted differently in terms of disease severity as well as their access to treated water and travel habits. Such an in-depth description of cholera epidemics should be systematically carried out in cholera endemic settings in order to prioritize higher risk areas, identify transmission factors, and optimize preventive interventions.

Cholera Incidence and Mortality in Sub-Saharan African Sites during Multi-country Surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Cholera burden in Africa remains unknown, often because of weak national surveillance systems. We analyzed data from the African Cholera Surveillance Network (www.africhol.org). METHODS/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During June 2011-December 2013, we conducted enhanced surveillance in seven zones and four outbreak sites in Togo, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Guinea, Uganda, Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire. All health facilities treating cholera cases were included. Cholera incidences were calculated using culture-confirmed cholera cases and culture-confirmed cholera cases corrected for lack of culture testing usually due to overwhelmed health systems and imperfect test sensitivity. Of 13,377 reported suspected cases, 34% occurred in Conakry, Guinea, 47% in Goma, DRC, and 19% in the remaining sites. From 0-40% of suspected cases were aged under five years and from 0.3-86% had rice water stools. Within surveillance zones, 0-37% of suspected cases had confirmed cholera compared to 27-38% during outbreaks. Annual confirmed incidence per 10,000 population was <0.5 in surveillance zones, except Goma where it was 4.6. Goma and Conakry had corrected incidences of 20.2 and 5.8 respectively, while the other zones a median of 0.3. During outbreaks, corrected incidence varied from 2.6 to 13.0. Case fatality ratios ranged from 0-10% (median, 1%) by country. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Across different African epidemiological contexts, substantial variation occurred in cholera incidence, age distribution, clinical presentation, culture confirmation, and testing frequency. These results can help guide preventive activities, including vaccine use.